Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 1.210001 1.274745 1.341840 1.416715 1.498123 1.584156 1.682217
2025-12-21 1.103908 1.194643 1.292638 1.406919 1.537274 1.682226 1.856860
2025-12-28 1.048621 1.156256 1.275942 1.420037 1.590369 1.787301 2.035204
2026-01-04 0.993738 1.111293 1.244935 1.409851 1.610369 1.849621 2.161977
2026-01-11 0.961889 1.089316 1.237099 1.423630 1.656462 1.942708 2.329898
2026-01-18 0.928749 1.062958 1.221251 1.424946 1.685071 2.013456 2.472121
2026-01-25 0.911342 1.053912 1.224886 1.449196 1.742358 2.122712 2.672239
2026-02-01 0.872278 1.016126 1.190673 1.422859 1.731447 2.139944 2.745276
2026-02-08 0.831734 0.974658 1.149757 1.385338 1.702831 2.130274 2.777517
2026-02-15 0.805874 0.950461 1.129461 1.373323 1.707094 2.165052 2.875781
2026-02-22 0.787535 0.934938 1.119385 1.373919 1.727941 2.223465 3.013000
2026-03-01 0.762733 0.910158 1.096192 1.355549 1.720944 2.240706 3.086960
2026-03-08 0.733668 0.879676 1.065375 1.326760 1.699525 2.238021 3.133358
2026-03-15 0.714092 0.860978 1.049511 1.317888 1.706180 2.277555 3.252031
2026-03-22 0.703794 0.853985 1.048801 1.329765 1.743179 2.364979 3.458499
2026-03-29 0.686417 0.836952 1.033792 1.320543 1.748043 2.402191 3.581213
2026-04-05 0.677903 0.831413 1.034107 1.333017 1.785873 2.493798 3.809991
2026-04-12 0.665976 0.820829 1.026991 1.334207 1.806154 2.557827 3.994489
2026-04-19 0.661728 0.820476 1.033947 1.356142 1.859644 2.680503 4.305572
2026-04-26 0.642670 0.799243 1.010854 1.332318 1.839100 2.675336 4.361772
2026-05-03 0.621202 0.774182 0.981677 1.298339 1.800677 2.636781 4.345698
2026-05-10 0.608053 0.760346 0.968084 1.287448 1.799167 2.662866 4.467215
2026-05-17 0.599088 0.752090 0.962189 1.287989 1.816265 2.722970 4.668272